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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dalian Zhixing cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dalian Zhixing beat Changchun Yatai 0-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.46 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.96 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 49% | Draw 27% | Dalian Zhixing 25%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Zhixing win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 65%, Dalian Zhixing 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights