Changchun Yatai 3-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Dalian Aerbin travel to Changchun's People Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 4W 2D 4L at Changchun's People Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Changchun's People Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Dalian Aerbin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Dalian Aerbin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.35 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.957 / defence 0.985 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.055 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.292. Data: 35 Changchun Yatai games / 35 Dalian Aerbin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 34% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 34%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Dalian Aerbin 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 30% | Dalian Aerbin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 34% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.35 / Dalian Aerbin 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.957 / def 0.985 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.055 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dalian Aerbin xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 34% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (4 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 2 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.96) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
34%
2.93
32%
3.10
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.70
1.34
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.34 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 17D 17L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (19W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.48 PPG, Dalian Aerbin on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.29 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 46%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Changchun Yatai) and 64% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 32% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 64% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Dalian Aerbin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Dalian Aerbin 3-2 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.35 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.34 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 34% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 34%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Dalian Aerbin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.48 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.