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Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Changchun Yatai.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Changchun Yatai 0-4 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.65 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 37%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 60%, Beijing Guoan 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights