Changchun Yatai 3-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Changchun Yatai face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Beijing Guoan in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beijing Guoan are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Beijing Guoan, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 1–1 Beijing Guoan — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.63 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.746 / defence 0.954 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.968 / defence 0.569. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.517. Changchun Yatai's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Beijing Guoan bring a tight defence (rating 0.569, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Changchun Yatai's projected output down. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 41 games and Beijing Guoan's last 41.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 55%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 6.12 | Draw 3.53 | Beijing Guoan 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (55%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 80% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Changchun Yatai 0.63 / Beijing Guoan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.746 / def 0.954 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.968 / def 0.569 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.517 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 16% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.75x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.57x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.97x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 41 games and Beijing Guoan's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
16%
6.12
28%
3.53
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.03
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
6.12
16%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
4%
24.83
29%
3.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 18.4 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 20D 23L from 64 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 17L across 64 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.70 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 15W 8D 9L across their last 32 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.72 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.34 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won Beijing Guoan 8-1 Changchun Yatai on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
7
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2025: Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Changchun Yatai) and 66% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 81% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Changchun Yatai defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Beijing Guoan 3-2 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.63 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.75 / defence 0.95 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.97 / defence 0.57, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 55%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Changchun Yatai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.