Changchun Yatai 3-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun Sports Center Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beijing Guoan are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Beijing Guoan, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.63 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.746 / defence 0.954 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.968 / defence 0.569. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.517. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.569 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Changchun Yatai games / 41 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 55%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | Beijing Guoan 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 80% | Beijing Guoan 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.63 / Beijing Guoan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.746 / def 0.954 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.968 / def 0.569 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.517 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 16% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Record (6 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 4W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.75x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.57x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.97x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
16%
6.12
28%
3.53
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.03
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
6.12
16%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
4%
24.83
29%
3.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 18.4 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 20D 23L from 64 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 17L across 64 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.70 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 11L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 15W 8D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.72 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.34 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 8-1 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
7
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Changchun Yatai) and 66% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Changchun Yatai defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Beijing Guoan 3-2 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.63 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.75 / defence 0.95 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.97 / defence 0.57, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 55%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Changchun Yatai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.