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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Yunnan Yukun 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Yunnan Yukun 2-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.92 xG and Yunnan Yukun 0.82 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.15 / defence 0.72 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 63% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 15%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights