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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Wuhan Three Towns 4-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.95 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.16 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 54% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 63%, Wuhan Three Towns 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights