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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.54 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.49 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.32 / defence 0.64 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.53 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 81% | Draw 14% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 63%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights