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Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beijing Guoan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Beijing Guoan 1-3 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.57 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.15 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.15 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 47% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 28%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Shanghai Shenhua 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 2.04. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights