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Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.32 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.99 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beijing Guoan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.26 / defence 0.77 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 67% | Draw 19% | Qingdao Youth Island 14%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights