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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Beijing Guoan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Jonoon beat Beijing Guoan 2-4 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.30 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.64 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 67% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Jonoon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 65%, Qingdao Jonoon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights