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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 5-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.66 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.34 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.76 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 66% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 17%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 66%, Meizhou Kejia 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.62 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights