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Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Henan Jianye 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.96 xG and Henan Jianye 0.84 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beijing Guoan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.47 / defence 0.69 against Henan Jianye attack 0.83 / defence 0.76, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 62% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 13%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 57%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights