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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dalian Zhixing.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Zhixing 4-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.31 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.88 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.66 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 69% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 12%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Dalian Zhixing 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights