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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.94 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.38 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 27%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 57%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights