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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Changchun Yatai 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.89 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.88 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.33 / defence 0.74 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 78% | Draw 14% | Changchun Yatai 8%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 57%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights