Universidad de Concepcion 0-3 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Concepcion at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Universidad de Concepcion face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Universidad de Concepcion welcome Everton de Vina to Municipal de Collao in Primera División (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton de Vina stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Concepcion 1.34 xG and Everton de Vina 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.926 / defence 1.033 | Everton de Vina attack 0.750 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 0.965. Everton de Vina's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Universidad de Concepcion's last 4 games and Everton de Vina's last 34.
Result probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 51% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 21%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Concepcion 1.97 | Draw 3.53 | Everton de Vina 4.79. Universidad de Concepcion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Concepcion at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Concepcion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 5 | Venue: Municipal de Collao • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 51% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Universidad de Concepcion 1.34 / Everton de Vina 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.926 / def 1.033 | Everton de Vina attack 0.750 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.478 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Concepcion (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Universidad de Concepcion xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Everton de Vina xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Municipal de Collao.
What was the final score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina?
Universidad de Concepcion 0 - 3 Everton de Vina.
Where is Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Municipal de Collao.
What competition is Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina part of?
Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 5) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Concepcion a 51% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Concepcion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Universidad de Concepcion and Everton de Vina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Universidad de Concepcion's attack rating (0.93) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Universidad de Concepcion's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Universidad de Concepcion's last 4 games and Everton de Vina's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Concepcion Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.53
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Universidad de Concepcion xG
Total xG
2.09
0.75
Everton de Vina xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Universidad de Concepcion and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 0.75 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Concepcion
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Universidad de Concepcion (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Universidad de Concepcion
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2026. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Universidad de Concepcion
0
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Universidad de Concepcion vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Concepcion and Everton de Vina?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Universidad de Concepcion have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Concepcion and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Everton de Vina 3-1 Universidad de Concepcion.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Concepcion and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Concepcion home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Universidad de Concepcion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Concepcion 0-3 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.34 xG and Everton de Vina 0.75 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Universidad de Concepcion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Everton de Vina attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 51% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 21%, with Universidad de Concepcion to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.