Universidad de Chile 4-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos to face Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Universidad de Chile (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form ledger tips toward Universidad de Chile. A 0.70 PPG lead over Everton de Vina (2.40 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Universidad de Chile lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Universidad de Chile goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 49% versus Everton de Vina 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 51% | Everton de Vina 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.82 xG and Everton de Vina 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 1.411 / defence 0.832 | Everton de Vina attack 1.372 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.276. Universidad de Chile carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Everton de Vina's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Universidad de Chile games / 53 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 46% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 31%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 3.23. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Universidad de Chile 50% | Everton de Vina 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Monday 26 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 46% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.82 / Everton de Vina 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 1.411 / def 0.832 | Everton de Vina attack 1.372 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Everton de Vina xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Universidad de Chile 4 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 46% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
Record (9 meetings): Universidad de Chile 3W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.37x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
46%
2.16
23%
4.41
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
3.28
1.46
Everton de Vina xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.46 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Universidad de Chile have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 29W 10D 14L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 16W 14D 23L from 53 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Universidad de Chile are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton de Vina.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Universidad de Chile have posted 2.35 PPG from 26 outings (19W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Universidad de Chile are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 9W 3D 14L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.21 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 29W 10D 14L in their last 53 games (1.83 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Everton de Vina away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 2.35 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Universidad de Chile or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 26 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Universidad de Chile won 4-1 on 26 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2026, when Universidad de Chile 4-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 58%, Everton de Vina 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Universidad de Chile) and 54% (Everton de Vina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 42% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Universidad de Chile's matches and 54% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Universidad de Chile run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Everton de Vina 4-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.82 xG and Everton de Vina 1.46 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Universidad de Chile beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.41 / defence 0.83 against Everton de Vina attack 1.37 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 46% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 31%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 51%, Everton de Vina 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.