Universidad de Chile 2-2 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique meet at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Universidad de Chile have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.970 / defence 0.901 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.089 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.294. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Universidad de Chile's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Universidad de Chile games / 10 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 49% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 27%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Iquique 3.70. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 49% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.77 / Deportes Iquique 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.970 / def 0.901 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.089 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Deportes Iquique xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Universidad de Chile 2 - 2 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 49% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Universidad de Chile home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.97) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (1.09x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.29
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
3.04
1.27
Deportes Iquique xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
5%
21.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.27 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Universidad de Chile have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deportes Iquique won 3-0 on 29 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
1
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-3 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, Regular Season - 11, as Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.27 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.09 / defence 1.24, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 49% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 27%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.