Universidad de Chile 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos to face Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Universidad de Chile's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deportes Copiapo (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Universidad de Chile, 1 for Deportes Copiapo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Universidad de Chile winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Universidad de Chile — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 64% versus Deportes Copiapo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 60% | Deportes Copiapo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.59 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.894 / defence 0.928 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.745 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.333. Data: 47 Universidad de Chile games / 47 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 53% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 22%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Deportes Copiapo 4.55. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Universidad de Chile 70% | Deportes Copiapo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 53% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.59 / Deportes Copiapo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.894 / def 0.928 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.745 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Deportes Copiapo xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 0 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 53% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (3 meetings): Universidad de Chile 1W | Draws 1 | Deportes Copiapo 1W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Universidad de Chile's attack at 0.89x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.74x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.97
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
22.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.92 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Universidad de Chile have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 20W 13D 14L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deportes Copiapo's form line: 14W 10D 23L from 47 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Universidad de Chile are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Universidad de Chile have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L).
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 3W 5D 14L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Copiapo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.17 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 games (1.55 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.36 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Universidad de Chile have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
1
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Universidad de Chile 1-0 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 59%, Deportes Copiapo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Universidad de Chile) and 41% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Deportes Copiapo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 46% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 41% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Deportes Copiapo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.59 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Copiapo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 53% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 22%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 60%, Deportes Copiapo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.