Union La Calera 0-0 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs U. Catolica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar plays host to Union La Calera versus U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 22 March 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union La Calera have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
U. Catolica (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
U. Catolica's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Union La Calera, 1.50 for U. Catolica — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Union La Calera 1W, U. Catolica 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
U. Catolica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 60% versus U. Catolica 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | U. Catolica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 0.87 xG and U. Catolica 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.822 / defence 1.306 | U. Catolica attack 1.183 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.250. Data: 34 Union La Calera games / 34 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 16% | Draw 21% | U. Catolica 62%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | U. Catolica 1.61. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union La Calera 70% | U. Catolica 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Friday 22 Mar 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 16% | Draw 21% | U. Catolica 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Union La Calera 0.87 / U. Catolica 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.822 / def 1.306 | U. Catolica attack 1.183 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.93
U. Catolica xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs U. Catolica kick off?
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica kicked off at 22:00 on Friday 22 March 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Union La Calera 0 - 0 U. Catolica.
Where is Union La Calera vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs U. Catolica part of?
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 16% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union La Calera and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and U. Catolica?
Record (5 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | U. Catolica 3W.
What form are Union La Calera and U. Catolica in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against U. Catolica's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — U. Catolica's attack (1.18x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
16%
6.18
21%
4.66
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.80
1.93
U. Catolica xG
6.18
16%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
15%
6.90
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
2%
42.60
26%
3.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.93 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs U. Catolica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 19W 23D 18L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
U. Catolica, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 21L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Union La Calera against 1.45 for U. Catolica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 11W 12D 7L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
U. Catolica's away record stands at 11W 6D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.48 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or U. Catolica away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 4-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against U. Catolica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
3
Draws
5
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, U. Catolica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when U. Catolica 1-2 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 60%, U. Catolica 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Union La Calera and 77% for U. Catolica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play U. Catolica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union La Calera's games and 57% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union La Calera's matches and 77% of U. Catolica's.
Do Union La Calera and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union La Calera's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and U. Catolica finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 0.87 xG and U. Catolica 1.93 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 0.9 short of their projected output. U. Catolica landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against U. Catolica attack 1.18 / defence 0.82, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 16% | Draw 21% | U. Catolica 62%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, U. Catolica 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, U. Catolica 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.