Union La Calera 2-3 O'Higgins – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union La Calera face O'Higgins.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union La Calera and O'Higgins meet at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Union La Calera's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
O'Higgins (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
O'Higgins's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Union La Calera 1–0 O'Higgins — a Union La Calera win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
O'Higgins goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 60% versus O'Higgins 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | O'Higgins 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union La Calera surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while O'Higgins have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 0.94 xG and O'Higgins 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.759 / defence 1.171 | O'Higgins attack 1.112 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.171. Union La Calera's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 36 games and O'Higgins's last 36.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 23% | Draw 26% | O'Higgins 51%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 4.32 | Draw 3.87 | O'Higgins 1.96. O'Higgins hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates O'Higgins as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on O'Higgins if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches — though recent form (Union La Calera's last 10 home games and O'Higgins's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union La Calera 70% (last 10 home games) | O'Higgins 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs O'Higgins | Competition: Primera División, matchday 7 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 23% | Draw 26% | O'Higgins 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Union La Calera 0.94 / O'Higgins 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.759 / def 1.171 | O'Higgins attack 1.112 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.53
O'Higgins xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs O'Higgins FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs O'Higgins kick off?
Union La Calera vs O'Higgins kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Union La Calera 2 - 3 O'Higgins.
Where is Union La Calera vs O'Higgins being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs O'Higgins part of?
Union La Calera vs O'Higgins is a Primera División fixture (matchday 7) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 23% chance of winning, O'Higgins a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union La Calera and O'Higgins will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Union La Calera vs O'Higgins have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.76x the league average against O'Higgins's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — O'Higgins's attack (1.11x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 36 games and O'Higgins's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
23%
4.32
26%
3.87
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.46
1.53
O'Higgins xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
19.89
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs O'Higgins Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and O'Higgins expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.53 for O'Higgins, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs O'Higgins?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Union La Calera have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 23D 18L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
O'Higgins's form line: 20W 19D 21L from 60 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Union La Calera against 1.32 for O'Higgins. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union La Calera have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 12D 7L).
On the road, O'Higgins have gone 10W 8D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; O'Higgins are on 1.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
O'Higgins
Current Season
Union La Calera (Home) vs O'Higgins (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Current Season
O'Higgins
Current Season
❓ Union La Calera vs O'Higgins Form FAQs
What form are Union La Calera and O'Higgins in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while O'Higgins have gone 20W 19D 21L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or O'Higgins away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; O'Higgins away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or O'Higgins been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, O'Higgins in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against O'Higgins — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
5
Draws
4
O'Higgins
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs O'Higgins H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and O'Higgins?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 1, O'Higgins have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and O'Higgins last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: O'Higgins 2-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and O'Higgins?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
O'Higgins see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 60%, O'Higgins 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union La Calera) and 40% (O'Higgins).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins in 33%; O'Higgins in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / O'Higgins away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union La Calera vs O'Higgins Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union La Calera and O'Higgins matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 37% of O'Higgins's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union La Calera and O'Higgins matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union La Calera's recent games and 40% of O'Higgins's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and O'Higgins matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 53% of O'Higgins's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as O'Higgins edge out Union La Calera 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
O'Higgins beat Union La Calera 2-3 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 0.94 xG and O'Higgins 1.53 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. O'Higgins outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against O'Higgins attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 23% | Draw 26% | O'Higgins 51%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, O'Higgins 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, O'Higgins 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.