Union La Calera 0-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Union La Calera have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union La Calera at 1.40 PPG versus Everton de Vina's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union La Calera: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Everton de Vina, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Union La Calera winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union La Calera and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 60% versus Everton de Vina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Everton de Vina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.69 xG and Everton de Vina 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.861 / defence 1.232 | Everton de Vina attack 1.212 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.222. Everton de Vina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Union La Calera games / 38 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 36% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 42%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Everton de Vina 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 70% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 36% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Union La Calera 1.69 / Everton de Vina 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.861 / def 1.232 | Everton de Vina attack 1.212 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Everton de Vina xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera 0 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 36% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union La Calera and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Record (4 meetings): Union La Calera 3W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.86x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
36%
2.77
22%
4.51
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.51
1.82
Everton de Vina xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.21
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.82 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 23D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.45 PPG from 60 outings (22W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.33 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union La Calera's home form reads 11W 12D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union La Calera's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 60%, Everton de Vina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union La Calera) and 37% (Everton de Vina).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union La Calera's games and 57% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union La Calera's recent games and 37% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Union La Calera 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.69 xG and Everton de Vina 1.82 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Everton de Vina attack 1.21 / defence 1.43, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 36% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 42%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.