Union La Calera 0-1 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union La Calera and Deportes Limache meet at Nicholas chahuan Municipal in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Union La Calera's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Nicholas chahuan Municipal this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Deportes Limache have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Deportes Limache have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Union La Calera against 1.10 for Deportes Limache. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union La Calera lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with Union La Calera winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Union La Calera half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Deportes Limache half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 39% versus Deportes Limache 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 36% | Deportes Limache 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.83 xG and Deportes Limache 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.918 / defence 1.039 | Deportes Limache attack 1.039 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.139. Deportes Limache bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Union La Calera games / 28 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 52% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 26%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Limache 3.85. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 40% | Deportes Limache 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nicholas chahuan Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 52% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Union La Calera 1.83 / Deportes Limache 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.918 / def 1.039 | Deportes Limache attack 1.039 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Deportes Limache xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Nicholas chahuan Municipal.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache?
Union La Calera 0 - 1 Deportes Limache.
Where is Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Nicholas chahuan Municipal.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache part of?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 52% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union La Calera and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Limache?
Record (1 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Limache 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Deportes Limache in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Deportes Limache (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (0.92) and Deportes Limache's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Limache's attack (1.04x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.37
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.06
1.23
Deportes Limache xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
4%
24.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.23 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union La Calera come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 5D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Deportes Limache sit at 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Union La Calera against 0.89 for Deportes Limache. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union La Calera's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Union La Calera are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Deportes Limache have taken 0.36 points per game from 14 outings (0W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Limache's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union La Calera are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.21 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Deportes Limache
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Deportes Limache away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Deportes Limache have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deportes Limache won 4-0 on 4 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
0
Draws
2
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Limache?
From 3 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 1, Deportes Limache have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Deportes Limache 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Deportes Limache?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 43%, Deportes Limache 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Union La Calera and 79% for Deportes Limache. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Union La Calera's games and 86% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union La Calera's matches and 79% of Deportes Limache's.
Do Union La Calera and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deportes Limache defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Limache beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Nicholas chahuan Municipal, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.83 xG and Deportes Limache 1.23 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Deportes Limache attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 52% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 26%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Deportes Limache win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 36%, Deportes Limache 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deportes Limache's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.04 PPG, Deportes Limache 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.