🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Deportes Iquique travel to Nicholas chahuan Municipal to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025, 23:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Nicholas chahuan Municipal, Union La Calera have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Union La Calera are significantly better at Nicholas chahuan Municipal than their overall form suggests.

Deportes Iquique — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Deportes Iquique have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union La Calera 0.70 PPG, Deportes Iquique 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union La Calera, 1 for Deportes Iquique and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Union La Calera winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Union La Calera in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Deportes Iquique in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 41% versus Deportes Iquique 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 38% | Deportes Iquique 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.84 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.981 / defence 0.977 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.900 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.099. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Union La Calera games / 56 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union La Calera 58% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 19%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Iquique 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 40% | Deportes Iquique 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights