Union La Calera 3-3 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Deportes Copiapo travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's home record at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deportes Copiapo — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union La Calera at 1.30 PPG versus Deportes Copiapo's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Union La Calera, 1 for Deportes Copiapo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Deportes Copiapo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 64% versus Deportes Copiapo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 52% | Deportes Copiapo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.65 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.997 / defence 1.124 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.728 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.221. Data: 50 Union La Calera games / 50 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 52% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 23%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Deportes Copiapo 4.35. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 70% | Deportes Copiapo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 52% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Union La Calera 1.65 / Deportes Copiapo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.997 / def 1.124 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.728 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Deportes Copiapo xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo?
Union La Calera 3 - 3 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 52% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (3 meetings): Union La Calera 0W | Draws 2 | Deportes Copiapo 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 1.00x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.00
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.65
1.00
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
22.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.00 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 15W 15D 20L from 50 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deportes Copiapo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 26L across 50 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.20 PPG, Deportes Copiapo on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 8W 6D 11L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deportes Copiapo's away record stands at 3W 5D 17L across 25 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Copiapo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.10 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 10D 26L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.20 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union La Calera's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 0, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Union La Calera 3-3 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo?
Deportes Copiapo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 68%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Union La Calera) and 40% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 28% of games; Deportes Copiapo in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Union La Calera's recent games and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and Deportes Copiapo finished level at 3-3 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.65 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deportes Copiapo outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 52% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 23%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 52%, Deportes Copiapo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.20 PPG, Deportes Copiapo 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.