Union La Calera 0-3 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 51%, yet in-form Cobresal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union La Calera vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cobresal travel to Municipal Nicolas Chahuan to take on Union La Calera in Primera División (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Monday 9 February 2026 at 23:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union La Calera stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cobresal — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Cobresal's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Union La Calera's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Cobresal have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Union La Calera.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Union La Calera 0–1 Cobresal — a Cobresal win.
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 43% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 40% | Cobresal 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.55 xG and Cobresal 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.913 / defence 1.039 | Cobresal attack 0.961 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 0.957. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 31 games and Cobresal's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.95 | Draw 3.92 | Cobresal 4.30. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cobresal (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union La Calera 40% (last 10 home games) | Cobresal 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Union La Calera 31 games, Cobresal 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, matchday 2 | Venue: Municipal Nicolas Chahuan • Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Union La Calera 1.55 / Cobresal 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.913 / def 1.039 | Cobresal attack 0.961 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.517 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cobresal xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Monday 9 February 2026 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 0 - 3 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Primera División fixture (matchday 2) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 51% chance of winning, Cobresal a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 31 games and Cobresal's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.92
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.51
0.96
Cobresal xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
20.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.96 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 12D 31L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (22W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.05 PPG, Cobresal on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 11W 5D 14L across their last 30 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 7D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
Union La Calera (Home) vs Cobresal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Form FAQs
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 17W 12D 31L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.27 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cobresal have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
1
Draws
7
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 2, Cobresal have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Cobresal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Union La Calera) and 53% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 30% of games; Cobresal in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union La Calera and Cobresal matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 43% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union La Calera and Cobresal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Union La Calera's matches and 53% of Cobresal's.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 73% of Cobresal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cobresal run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union La Calera 0-3 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.55 xG and Cobresal 0.96 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cobresal outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Cobresal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.05 PPG, Cobresal 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.