Union La Calera 0-2 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union La Calera face Cobreloa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar plays host to Union La Calera versus Cobreloa in Primera División (matchday 4). Kick-off: Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 00:30 UK time.
Current Form
Union La Calera's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 2.10 xG and Cobreloa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.983 / defence 1.197 | Cobreloa attack 0.703 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.387. Cobreloa's defence rating of 1.561 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union La Calera's projected output up. Cobreloa's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 32 games and Cobreloa's last 3.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 59% | Draw 21% | Cobreloa 20%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.70 | Draw 4.84 | Cobreloa 4.88. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 59% | Draw 21% | Cobreloa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Union La Calera 2.10 / Cobreloa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.983 / def 1.197 | Cobreloa attack 0.703 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cobreloa xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobreloa FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobreloa kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobreloa kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobreloa?
Union La Calera 0 - 2 Cobreloa.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobreloa part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobreloa is a Primera División fixture (matchday 4) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 59% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobreloa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union La Calera vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (0.98) and Cobreloa's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cobreloa's attack (0.70x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 32 games and Cobreloa's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.84
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.27
1.17
Cobreloa xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
2%
40.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobreloa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.17 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobreloa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Union La Calera (Home) vs Cobreloa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 10 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Union La Calera
0
Draws
2
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobreloa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobreloa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 0, Cobreloa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobreloa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2024: Cobreloa 2-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobreloa?
Cobreloa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cobreloa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobreloa beat Union La Calera 0-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 2.10 xG and Cobreloa 1.17 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Cobreloa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.98 / defence 1.20 against Cobreloa attack 0.70 / defence 1.56, drawn from 32/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 59% | Draw 21% | Cobreloa 20%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Cobreloa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.