Union Espanola 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 13 as Union Espanola welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Espanola's home record at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Espanola are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Union La Calera have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Union Espanola) versus 1.40 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Union Espanola, 3 for Union La Calera and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Union La Calera winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Espanola trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Union La Calera trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 52% versus Union La Calera 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 47% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 2.37 xG and Union La Calera 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.512 / defence 1.217 | Union La Calera attack 0.820 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.422. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack strength of 1.512 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Union Espanola games / 44 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 59% | Draw 19% | Union La Calera 22%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Union La Calera 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Union Espanola (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Espanola as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 50% | Union La Calera 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 59% | Draw 19% | Union La Calera 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Union Espanola 2.37 / Union La Calera 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.512 / def 1.217 | Union La Calera attack 0.820 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Union La Calera xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Union La Calera kick off?
Union Espanola vs Union La Calera kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 8 June 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Union Espanola 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Union Espanola vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Union La Calera part of?
Union Espanola vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 59% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Union Espanola and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Union La Calera?
Record (6 meetings): Union Espanola 2W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 3W.
What form are Union Espanola and Union La Calera in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.51) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
59%
1.71
19%
5.19
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
3.79
1.42
Union La Calera xG
1.71
59%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
2%
48.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.42 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 16D 24L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 19W 23D 18L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Espanola on 1.27 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 8W 11D 11L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union Espanola are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Union La Calera away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.47 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Espanola and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when Union La Calera won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Espanola's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Espanola
1
Draws
5
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 4, Union La Calera have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Union Espanola 3-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 57%, Union La Calera 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Union Espanola) and 50% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Union Espanola keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union La Calera in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Union Espanola's games and 60% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Union Espanola's recent games and 50% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Union Espanola 0-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 2.37 xG and Union La Calera 1.42 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.51 / defence 1.22 against Union La Calera attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 59% | Draw 19% | Union La Calera 22%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Union La Calera win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 47%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.27 PPG, Union La Calera 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.