Union Espanola 1-2 Magallanes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Magallanes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Espanola host Magallanes at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Espanola — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.54 xG and Magallanes 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.768 / defence 1.030 | Magallanes attack 0.933 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.196. Union Espanola's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Magallanes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Union Espanola's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Union Espanola games / 4 Magallanes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 46% | Draw 25% | Magallanes 28%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Magallanes 3.57. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Magallanes | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 46% | Draw 25% | Magallanes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Union Espanola 1.54 / Magallanes 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 0.768 / def 1.030 | Magallanes attack 0.933 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Magallanes xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Magallanes kick off?
Union Espanola vs Magallanes kicked off at 21:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Magallanes?
Union Espanola 1 - 2 Magallanes.
Where is Union Espanola vs Magallanes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Magallanes part of?
Union Espanola vs Magallanes is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Magallanes?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 46% chance of winning, Magallanes a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Magallanes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union Espanola and Magallanes will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Magallanes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Magallanes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Espanola and Magallanes in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Union Espanola home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (0.77) and Magallanes's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Magallanes's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
46%
2.15
25%
3.96
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.69
1.15
Magallanes xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Magallanes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Magallanes expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.15 for Magallanes, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Magallanes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
Magallanes
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Union Espanola
0
Draws
2
Magallanes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Magallanes?
From 2 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 0, Magallanes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Magallanes last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Magallanes 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Magallanes?
Magallanes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Magallanes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Magallanes defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Magallanes beat Union Espanola 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.54 xG and Magallanes 1.15 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Magallanes outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Magallanes attack 0.93 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 46% | Draw 25% | Magallanes 28%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Magallanes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.