Union Espanola 0-2 D. Melipilla – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK plays host to Union Espanola versus D. Melipilla in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.41 xG and D. Melipilla 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.262 / defence 1.161 | D. Melipilla attack 0.728 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 0.870 / away 0.940. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. D. Melipilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Union Espanola's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Union Espanola games / 2 D. Melipilla games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 48% | Draw 35% | D. Melipilla 17%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.08 | Draw 2.86 | D. Melipilla 5.88. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 48% | Draw 35% | D. Melipilla 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Union Espanola 1.41 / D. Melipilla 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.262 / def 1.161 | D. Melipilla attack 0.728 / def 1.281 | league avg home 0.870 / away 0.940 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
0.79
D. Melipilla xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla kick off?
Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla?
Union Espanola 0 - 2 D. Melipilla.
Where is Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla part of?
Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 48% chance of winning, D. Melipilla a 17% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Union Espanola and D. Melipilla will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and D. Melipilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Espanola and D. Melipilla in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Espanola's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against D. Melipilla's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — D. Melipilla's attack (0.73x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
48%
2.10
35%
2.87
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.20
0.79
D. Melipilla xG
2.10
48%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
23.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and D. Melipilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Union Espanola and 0.79 for D. Melipilla, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs D. Melipilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
D. Melipilla
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Union Espanola
0
Draws
1
D. Melipilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and D. Melipilla?
From 2 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 1, D. Melipilla have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and D. Melipilla last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2021, when D. Melipilla 0-3 Union Espanola.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / D. Melipilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
D. Melipilla cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. Melipilla beat Union Espanola 0-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.41 xG and D. Melipilla 0.79 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Espanola fell 1.4 short of their projected output. D. Melipilla outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.26 / defence 1.16 against D. Melipilla attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 48% | Draw 35% | D. Melipilla 17%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a D. Melipilla win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.