🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Union Espanola. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 June 2025, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Union Espanola at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Espanola are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Union Espanola) versus 1.00 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Espanola register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Coquimbo Unido in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Union Espanola, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Union Espanola trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 48% versus Coquimbo Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 52% | Coquimbo Unido 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.01 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.819 / defence 1.328 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.150 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.038. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Union Espanola games / 44 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union Espanola 24% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 51%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 1.96. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 70% | Coquimbo Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights