Union Espanola 0-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Union Espanola. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 June 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union Espanola at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Espanola are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Union Espanola) versus 1.00 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Espanola register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Coquimbo Unido in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Union Espanola, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Espanola trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 48% versus Coquimbo Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 52% | Coquimbo Unido 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.01 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.819 / defence 1.328 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.150 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.038. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Union Espanola games / 44 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 24% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 51%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 1.96. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 70% | Coquimbo Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jun 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 24% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Union Espanola 1.01 / Coquimbo Unido 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 0.819 / def 1.328 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.150 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Coquimbo Unido xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 June 2025 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Union Espanola 0 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 24% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (6 meetings): Union Espanola 3W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Espanola's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
24%
4.15
25%
3.98
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.59
1.58
Coquimbo Unido xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
5%
20.25
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.58 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 15D 22L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 27W 14D 19L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Espanola on 1.40 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 11W 6D 13L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Espanola are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.77 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Union Espanola's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Union Espanola
1
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
From 8 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 50%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Union Espanola) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Union Espanola's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Union Espanola's matches and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union Espanola 0-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.01 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.58 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Espanola fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.82 / defence 1.33 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 24% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 51%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Coquimbo Unido 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.