U. Catolica 2-4 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 4 as U. Catolica welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 March 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, U. Catolica have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (U. Catolica) versus 1.40 (Everton de Vina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for U. Catolica, 2 for Everton de Vina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2023, ended 0–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 53% versus Everton de Vina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 62% | Everton de Vina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.14 xG and Everton de Vina 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 0.862 / defence 1.011 | Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.333. Data: 32 U. Catolica games / 32 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 33% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 40%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 60% | Everton de Vina 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Monday 11 Mar 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 33% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG U. Catolica 1.14 / Everton de Vina 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 0.862 / def 1.011 | Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kick off?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 11 March 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica 2 - 4 Everton de Vina.
Where is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina part of?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 33% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both U. Catolica and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
Record (5 meetings): U. Catolica 2W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 0.86x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.64
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.42
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.28 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 24W 15D 21L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 17L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 13W 9D 8L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 11W 10D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Everton de Vina away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.60 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 50%, Everton de Vina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (U. Catolica) and 37% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 57% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of U. Catolica's recent games and 37% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over U. Catolica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat U. Catolica 2-4 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.14 xG and Everton de Vina 1.28 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 33% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 40%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 62%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.