Santiago Wanderers 0-3 D. Melipilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. Melipilla at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
D. Melipilla make the trip to Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander to face Santiago Wanderers in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 May 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santiago Wanderers 0.92 xG and D. Melipilla 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santiago Wanderers attack 0.863 / defence 1.385 | D. Melipilla attack 0.740 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.110. Data: 5 Santiago Wanderers games / 6 D. Melipilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santiago Wanderers 28% | Draw 33% | D. Melipilla 39%. Fair-value odds: Santiago Wanderers 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | D. Melipilla 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, D. Melipilla are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on D. Melipilla if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santiago Wanderers 28% | Draw 33% | D. Melipilla 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Santiago Wanderers 0.92 / D. Melipilla 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Santiago Wanderers attack 0.863 / def 1.385 | D. Melipilla attack 0.740 / def 1.083 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: D. Melipilla (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Santiago Wanderers xG
Expected Goals
1.14
D. Melipilla xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla kick off?
Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What was the final score in Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla?
Santiago Wanderers 0 - 3 D. Melipilla.
Where is Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What competition is Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla part of?
Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla?
Our statistical model gives Santiago Wanderers a 28% chance of winning, D. Melipilla a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making D. Melipilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Santiago Wanderers and D. Melipilla will score (BTTS).
Will Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santiago Wanderers and D. Melipilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santiago Wanderers and D. Melipilla in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Santiago Wanderers's attack rating (0.86) and D. Melipilla's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — D. Melipilla's attack (0.74x) against Santiago Wanderers's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. Melipilla Win
28%
3.62
33%
3.01
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Santiago Wanderers xG
Total xG
2.05
1.14
D. Melipilla xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.6 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Santiago Wanderers and D. Melipilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Santiago Wanderers and 1.14 for D. Melipilla, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Santiago Wanderers vs D. Melipilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santiago Wanderers
Pre-Season
D. Melipilla
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Santiago Wanderers
1
Draws
1
D. Melipilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santiago Wanderers and D. Melipilla?
From 2 meetings on record, Santiago Wanderers have won 0, D. Melipilla have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santiago Wanderers and D. Melipilla last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2021, when D. Melipilla 1-1 Santiago Wanderers.
Who has won more matches between Santiago Wanderers and D. Melipilla?
D. Melipilla have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santiago Wanderers home games / D. Melipilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant D. Melipilla run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Santiago Wanderers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. Melipilla beat Santiago Wanderers 0-3 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santiago Wanderers 0.92 xG and D. Melipilla 1.14 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Santiago Wanderers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. D. Melipilla outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santiago Wanderers attack 0.86 / defence 1.39 against D. Melipilla attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santiago Wanderers 28% | Draw 33% | D. Melipilla 39%, with D. Melipilla to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.