Palestino 0-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Universidad de Chile travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palestino — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Palestino have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Palestino are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palestino 1.30 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Palestino, 4 for Universidad de Chile and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Universidad de Chile winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Palestino in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 53% versus Universidad de Chile 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 52% | Universidad de Chile 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.41 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 0.961 / defence 1.051 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.058 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.000. Data: 32 Palestino games / 32 Universidad de Chile games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palestino 44% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 30%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Universidad de Chile 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palestino 70% | Universidad de Chile 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 44% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Palestino 1.41 / Universidad de Chile 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 0.961 / def 1.051 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.058 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Palestino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Universidad de Chile xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Palestino vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 23:30 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Palestino 0 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Palestino vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Palestino vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 44% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Palestino and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Universidad de Chile?
Record (8 meetings): Palestino 2W | Draws 2 | Universidad de Chile 4W.
What form are Palestino and Universidad de Chile in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palestino's attack at 0.96x the league average against Universidad de Chile's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.77
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.52
1.11
Universidad de Chile xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Palestino and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Palestino and 1.11 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palestino's recent record stands at 27W 14D 19L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 12L across 60 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Universidad de Chile by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palestino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 16W 6D 8L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 16W 5D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Palestino are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.85 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Universidad de Chile in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Palestino's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.80 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Palestino or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Universidad de Chile runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palestino's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Palestino
3
Draws
5
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 2, Universidad de Chile have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Universidad de Chile 2-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 50%, Universidad de Chile 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palestino) and 53% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Universidad de Chile in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Universidad de Chile?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palestino's recent matches and 47% of Universidad de Chile's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palestino's recent games and 53% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palestino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 3, as Palestino and Universidad de Chile drew 0-0 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.41 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.11 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palestino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Universidad de Chile landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 44% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 30%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 52%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.