Palestino 0-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palestino and Union La Calera meet at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 March 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Palestino have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union La Calera have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palestino lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2023, ended 3–2 with Palestino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Union La Calera half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 52% versus Union La Calera 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 52% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.40 xG and Union La Calera 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.256 / defence 0.901 | Union La Calera attack 0.990 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.298. Palestino carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Palestino games / 33 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 42% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 31%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palestino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 40% | Union La Calera 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 42% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Palestino 1.40 / Union La Calera 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.256 / def 0.901 | Union La Calera attack 0.990 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Palestino (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Union La Calera xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Union La Calera kick off?
Palestino vs Union La Calera kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Palestino 0 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Palestino vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Union La Calera part of?
Palestino vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 42% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Palestino and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union La Calera?
Record (5 meetings): Palestino 1W | Draws 3 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Palestino and Union La Calera in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palestino's attack rating (1.26) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.99x) against Palestino's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.79
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.56
1.16
Union La Calera xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Palestino and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Palestino and 1.16 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palestino's recent record stands at 26W 17D 17L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Union La Calera, meanwhile, have gone 19W 23D 18L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Palestino against 1.33 for Union La Calera. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 17W 6D 7L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union La Calera's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palestino are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 60%.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Union La Calera away?
Palestino's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.90 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Palestino or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Palestino have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palestino have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Palestino
4
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 4, Union La Calera have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Union La Calera?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 53%, Union La Calera 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palestino) and 50% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union La Calera in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Palestino's games and 60% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palestino vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palestino's recent games and 50% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palestino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino and Union La Calera finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.40 xG and Union La Calera 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palestino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.26 / defence 0.90 against Union La Calera attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 42% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 31%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 52%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Union La Calera 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.