Palestino 0-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palestino (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palestino face Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palestino host Union Espanola at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palestino's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Espanola — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Palestino have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Palestino hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Union Espanola, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Palestino winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palestino and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Palestino trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Union Espanola trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 52% versus Union Espanola 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 52% | Union Espanola 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 2.09 xG and Union Espanola 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.159 / defence 0.816 | Union Espanola attack 0.980 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.416. Data: 42 Palestino games / 42 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 59% | Draw 21% | Union Espanola 20%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Union Espanola 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Palestino (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palestino as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Palestino 40% | Union Espanola 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 59% | Draw 21% | Union Espanola 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Palestino 2.09 / Union Espanola 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.159 / def 0.816 | Union Espanola attack 0.980 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Palestino (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Union Espanola xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Union Espanola kick off?
Palestino vs Union Espanola kicked off at 20:30 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Palestino 0 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Palestino vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Union Espanola part of?
Palestino vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 59% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Palestino and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union Espanola?
Record (6 meetings): Palestino 4W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are Palestino and Union Espanola in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palestino's attack rating (1.16) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.84
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Palestino xG
Total xG
3.23
1.13
Union Espanola xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
2%
40.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Palestino and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Palestino and 1.13 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palestino come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 17D 17L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (20W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.58 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Palestino's home form reads 17W 6D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (9W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Union Espanola away?
Palestino's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.90 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Palestino or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palestino go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Palestino won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Palestino
1
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 7, Union Espanola have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Palestino 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Union Espanola?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 53%, Union Espanola 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palestino) and 47% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union Espanola in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Palestino's recent matches and 47% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palestino's recent games and 47% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Palestino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Palestino 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 2.09 xG and Union Espanola 1.13 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palestino fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Union Espanola attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 59% | Draw 21% | Union Espanola 20%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Union Espanola win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 52%, Union Espanola 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Union Espanola 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Espanola (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.