Palestino 0-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palestino face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino in Primera División (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 November 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palestino stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palestino at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Everton de Vina have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palestino 2.00 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Palestino have won 0, Everton de Vina 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2023, ended Palestino 2–2 Everton de Vina — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palestino in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 54% versus Everton de Vina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 53% | Everton de Vina 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Palestino surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Everton de Vina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.29 xG and Everton de Vina 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.062 / defence 0.831 | Everton de Vina attack 1.162 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.344. Data: built from Palestino's last 57 games and Everton de Vina's last 57.
Result probabilities: Palestino 36% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 37%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.74 | Draw 3.78 | Everton de Vina 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palestino 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton de Vina 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Thursday 23 November 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 36% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Palestino 1.29 / Everton de Vina 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.062 / def 0.831 | Everton de Vina attack 1.162 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Everton de Vina xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does Palestino vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Thursday 23 November 2023 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Palestino 0 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Palestino vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Everton de Vina part of?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 28) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 36% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palestino and Everton de Vina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palestino vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.06x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palestino's last 57 games and Everton de Vina's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.78
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.58
1.30
Everton de Vina xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Palestino and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Palestino and 1.30 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Palestino have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 24W 17D 16L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 21W 21D 15L from 57 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.56 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palestino have posted 1.93 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 6D 6L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 10W 10D 8L from their last 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.40 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
Palestino (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palestino
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina Form FAQs
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 24W 17D 16L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 21W 21D 15L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Everton de Vina away?
Palestino's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.93 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Palestino or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 13 June 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won Palestino 1-4 Everton de Vina.
Palestino's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
3
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Palestino have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 June 2026: Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 57%, Everton de Vina 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palestino) and 39% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palestino and Everton de Vina matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Palestino's games and 61% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Palestino and Everton de Vina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palestino's recent games and 39% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Everton de Vina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Palestino's recent matches and 71% of Everton de Vina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palestino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Palestino 0-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.29 xG and Everton de Vina 1.30 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palestino fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against Everton de Vina attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 36% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 37%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 53%, Everton de Vina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.56 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.