O'Higgins 0-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cobresal at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this O'Higgins vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
O'Higgins host Cobresal at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, O'Higgins have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for O'Higgins, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, O'Higgins have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cobresal — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cobresal's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of O'Higgins's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. O'Higgins register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cobresal in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for O'Higgins, 2 for Cobresal and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Cobresal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
O'Higgins in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 47% versus Cobresal 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (O'Higgins 44% | Cobresal 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.33 xG and Cobresal 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.782 / defence 1.111 | Cobresal attack 1.065 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.343. O'Higgins's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 O'Higgins games / 57 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 32% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 43%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Cobresal 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: O'Higgins 70% | Cobresal 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 32% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG O'Higgins 1.33 / Cobresal 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.782 / def 1.111 | Cobresal attack 1.065 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Cobresal xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Cobresal kick off?
O'Higgins vs Cobresal kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Cobresal?
O'Higgins 0 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is O'Higgins vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Cobresal part of?
O'Higgins vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 32% chance of winning, Cobresal a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both O'Higgins and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Cobresal?
Record (4 meetings): O'Higgins 2W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 2W.
What form are O'Higgins and Cobresal in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Cobresal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from O'Higgins's attack rating (0.78) and Cobresal's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus O'Higgins's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
32%
3.11
24%
4.09
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.92
1.59
Cobresal xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.59 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
O'Higgins's recent record stands at 19W 18D 20L from 57 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for O'Higgins is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 17L across 57 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: O'Higgins on 1.32 PPG, Cobresal on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, O'Higgins have managed 10W 10D 8L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cobresal's away record stands at 8W 7D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Goals in Recent Form
O'Higgins are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.65 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Cobresal in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 19W 18D 20L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Cobresal away?
O'Higgins's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 1.43 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
O'Higgins go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
O'Higgins's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
O'Higgins
3
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 4, Cobresal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Cobresal 2-3 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Cobresal?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 57%, Cobresal 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (O'Higgins) and 68% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of O'Higgins's games and 64% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is O'Higgins vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of O'Higgins's matches and 68% of Cobresal's.
Do O'Higgins and Cobresal tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at O'Higgins's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
O'Higgins and Cobresal finished level at 0-0 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.33 xG and Cobresal 1.59 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. O'Higgins fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cobresal landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against Cobresal attack 1.06 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 32% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 43%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 44%, Cobresal 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cobresal's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.32 PPG, Cobresal 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.