O'Higgins 0-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this O'Higgins vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 33 as O'Higgins welcome Antofagasta to Estadio El Teniente. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, O'Higgins have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
O'Higgins's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio El Teniente this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antofagasta — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Antofagasta have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (O'Higgins) versus 1.50 (Antofagasta). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for O'Higgins, 1 for Antofagasta and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Antofagasta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
O'Higgins in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Antofagasta in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 47% versus Antofagasta 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (O'Higgins 43% | Antofagasta 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.10 xG and Antofagasta 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.901 / defence 1.226 | Antofagasta attack 0.609 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.267. Data: 31 O'Higgins games / 30 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 38% | Draw 32% | Antofagasta 30%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Antofagasta 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is O'Higgins at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on O'Higgins offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: O'Higgins 70% | Antofagasta 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 38% | Draw 32% | Antofagasta 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG O'Higgins 1.10 / Antofagasta 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.901 / def 1.226 | Antofagasta attack 0.609 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Antofagasta xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Antofagasta kick off?
O'Higgins vs Antofagasta kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
O'Higgins 0 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is O'Higgins vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Antofagasta part of?
O'Higgins vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 38% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both O'Higgins and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Antofagasta?
Record (1 meetings): O'Higgins 0W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 1W.
What form are O'Higgins and Antofagasta in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
O'Higgins's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus O'Higgins's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.11
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.05
0.95
Antofagasta xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for O'Higgins and 0.95 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
O'Higgins's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 9L across 30 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: O'Higgins on 1.20 PPG, Antofagasta on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, O'Higgins have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 3W 8D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
O'Higgins are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta in 60%.
Defensively: O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Current Season
Antofagasta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Antofagasta away?
O'Higgins's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 1.33 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.13 PPG.
Have O'Higgins or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
O'Higgins's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
O'Higgins
1
Draws
2
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 1, Antofagasta have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2022, when O'Higgins 1-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Antofagasta?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 53%, Antofagasta 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for O'Higgins and 27% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: O'Higgins keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Antofagasta in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 53% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of O'Higgins's recent games and 27% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Antofagasta tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at O'Higgins's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 33, as O'Higgins and Antofagasta drew 0-0 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.10 xG and Antofagasta 0.95 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. O'Higgins fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antofagasta landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.90 / defence 1.23 against Antofagasta attack 0.61 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 38% | Draw 32% | Antofagasta 30%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 43%, Antofagasta 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antofagasta's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.20 PPG, Antofagasta 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.