Nublense 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nublense host Union La Calera at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Nublense) versus 1.50 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Nublense have won 0, Union La Calera 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Union La Calera winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 55% and Union La Calera 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 45% | Union La Calera 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.31 xG and Union La Calera 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.907 / defence 0.796 | Union La Calera attack 0.777 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.144. Nublense's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Nublense games / 53 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 51% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 20%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Union La Calera 5.00. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 30% | Union La Calera 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 51% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Nublense 1.31 / Union La Calera 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.907 / def 0.796 | Union La Calera attack 0.777 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Nublense (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Union La Calera xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Union La Calera kick off?
Nublense vs Union La Calera kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Nublense 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Nublense vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Union La Calera part of?
Nublense vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 51% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Nublense and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
Record (6 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 4 | Union La Calera 2W.
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nublense's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Union La Calera's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.47
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.02
0.71
Union La Calera xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Nublense and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Nublense and 0.71 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 15D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.23 PPG from 53 outings (16W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nublense on 1.19 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 8W 8D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.19 points per game from 26 outings (7W 10D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.25 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Union La Calera away?
Nublense's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.23 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Nublense or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nublense's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nublense
5
Draws
4
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 1, Union La Calera have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 50%, Union La Calera 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nublense) and 38% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nublense's games and 62% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nublense's recent games and 38% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Nublense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Nublense 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.31 xG and Union La Calera 0.71 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nublense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.91 / defence 0.80 against Union La Calera attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 51% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 20%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Union La Calera win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 45%, Union La Calera 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Union La Calera's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.19 PPG, Union La Calera 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.