Nublense 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Everton de Vina meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nublense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Nublense, 1.30 for Everton de Vina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Nublense 2W, Everton de Vina 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 55% versus Everton de Vina 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 49% | Everton de Vina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.73 xG and Everton de Vina 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.188 / defence 0.952 | Everton de Vina attack 1.240 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.262. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Nublense games / 49 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 43% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 33%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nublense at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 30% | Everton de Vina 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 43% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Nublense 1.73 / Everton de Vina 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.188 / def 0.952 | Everton de Vina attack 1.240 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Nublense (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Everton de Vina xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Nublense vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Nublense 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Nublense vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Everton de Vina part of?
Nublense vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 43% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Nublense and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
Record (6 meetings): Nublense 2W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Nublense and Everton de Vina in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nublense's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.24x) against Nublense's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
43%
2.30
23%
4.31
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Nublense xG
Total xG
3.21
1.49
Everton de Vina xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Nublense and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Nublense and 1.49 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nublense come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 12D 21L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.47 PPG from 49 outings (20W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Nublense against 1.47 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nublense's home form reads 8W 6D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.54 points per game from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nublense are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.45 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Everton de Vina away?
Everton de Vina's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.25 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
4
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 54%, Everton de Vina 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nublense) and 50% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Nublense's games and 62% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Nublense's recent games and 50% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.73 xG and Everton de Vina 1.49 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Everton de Vina attack 1.24 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 43% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 33%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 49%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.22 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.