Nublense 2-0 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Deportes Iquique meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Deportes Iquique have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Nublense against 1.50 for Deportes Iquique. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nublense lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Deportes Iquique winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Deportes Iquique half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 42% versus Deportes Iquique 77%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 46% | Deportes Iquique 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.44 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.827 / defence 0.838 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.061 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.110. Data: 56 Nublense games / 26 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 47% | Draw 27% | Deportes Iquique 26%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Deportes Iquique 3.85. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 30% | Deportes Iquique 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 47% | Draw 27% | Deportes Iquique 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Nublense 1.44 / Deportes Iquique 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.827 / def 0.838 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.061 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Nublense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Deportes Iquique xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Nublense vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Nublense 2 - 0 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Nublense vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Nublense vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 47% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nublense and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Iquique?
Record (1 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Iquique 1W.
What form are Nublense and Deportes Iquique in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nublense's attack rating (0.83) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (1.06x) against Nublense's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.75
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.42
0.99
Deportes Iquique xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Nublense and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Nublense and 0.99 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 7D 10L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Iquique sit at 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Nublense against 1.62 for Deportes Iquique. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nublense's home form reads 5W 4D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Iquique have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.81 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique in 77%.
Defensively: Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Nublense's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.46 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Nublense or Deportes Iquique been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Deportes Iquique in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nublense
1
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Nublense have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Deportes Iquique 0-2 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Deportes Iquique?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 31%, Deportes Iquique 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Nublense and 85% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Deportes Iquique?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Nublense's recent matches and 77% of Deportes Iquique's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Nublense's matches and 85% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do Nublense and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Deportes Iquique 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.44 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.99 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Deportes Iquique landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 47% | Draw 27% | Deportes Iquique 26%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 46%, Deportes Iquique 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.31 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.