Nublense 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Deportes Copiapo meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 March 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Nublense have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Deportes Copiapo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deportes Copiapo's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Nublense, 0 for Deportes Copiapo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Nublense — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 63% versus Deportes Copiapo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 43% | Deportes Copiapo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.17 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.744 / defence 0.959 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.901 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.360. Nublense's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Nublense games / 33 Deportes Copiapo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nublense 36% | Draw 28% | Deportes Copiapo 36%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Deportes Copiapo 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 50% | Deportes Copiapo 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Monday 11 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 36% | Draw 28% | Deportes Copiapo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Nublense 1.17 / Deportes Copiapo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.744 / def 0.959 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.901 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Deportes Copiapo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 11 March 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Nublense 1 - 0 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 36% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nublense and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (2 meetings): Nublense 1W | Draws 1 | Deportes Copiapo 0W.
What form are Nublense and Deportes Copiapo in?
Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nublense's attack rating (0.74) and Deportes Copiapo's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.90x) against Nublense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.56
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.34
1.18
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nublense and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Nublense and 1.18 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Deportes Copiapo sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Nublense against 1.13 for Deportes Copiapo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nublense's home form reads 4W 4D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Copiapo have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (2W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nublense have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Nublense's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.07 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Nublense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Nublense
1
Draws
0
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Nublense have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Deportes Copiapo?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 67%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nublense) and 33% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Nublense's recent matches and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Nublense's recent games and 33% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.17 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Copiapo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 36% | Draw 28% | Deportes Copiapo 36%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 43%, Deportes Copiapo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.17 PPG, Deportes Copiapo 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.