Nublense 1-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nublense face Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Cobresal meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Nublense's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Nublense's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Cobresal have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cobresal's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Nublense, 2 for Cobresal and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Nublense 2–2 Cobresal — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nublense — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cobresal — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 57% and Cobresal 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 47% | Cobresal 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nublense surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Cobresal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.57 xG and Cobresal 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.944 / defence 0.852 | Cobresal attack 0.911 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.197. Data: built from Nublense's last 53 games and Cobresal's last 53.
Result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 22%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 1.91 | Draw 3.94 | Cobresal 4.48. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nublense 40% (last 10 home games) | Cobresal 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, matchday 24 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Nublense 1.57 / Cobresal 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.944 / def 0.852 | Cobresal attack 0.911 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Nublense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cobresal xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nublense vs Cobresal FAQs
What time does Nublense vs Cobresal kick off?
Nublense vs Cobresal kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Cobresal?
Nublense 1 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is Nublense vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Cobresal part of?
Nublense vs Cobresal is a Primera División fixture (matchday 24) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 52% chance of winning, Cobresal a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nublense and Cobresal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Nublense vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nublense's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.91x) against Nublense's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Nublense's last 53 games and Cobresal's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.94
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.50
0.93
Cobresal xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nublense vs Cobresal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Nublense and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Nublense and 0.93 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense's recent record stands at 16W 15D 22L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Cobresal, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 15L across 53 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Nublense against 1.51 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nublense have managed 8W 8D 10L from their last 26 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cobresal's away record stands at 5W 10D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.72 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 66%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
Nublense (Home) vs Cobresal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nublense
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Nublense vs Cobresal Form FAQs
What form are Nublense and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 21W 17D 15L in their last 53 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Cobresal away?
Nublense's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.23 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Nublense and Cobresal, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 29 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Nublense have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won Nublense 5-0 Cobresal on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
4
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Nublense vs Cobresal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Cobresal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nublense have won 4, Cobresal have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Cobresal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 May 2026: Cobresal 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Cobresal?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 54%, Cobresal 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nublense) and 65% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cobresal in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nublense vs Cobresal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nublense and Cobresal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Nublense's games and 58% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nublense and Cobresal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nublense's matches and 65% of Cobresal's.
Do Nublense and Cobresal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Nublense's recent matches and 62% of Cobresal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out Cobresal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Cobresal 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.57 xG and Cobresal 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Cobresal attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 22%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 47%, Cobresal 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cobresal's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.19 PPG, Cobresal 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.