Magallanes 1-4 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Magallanes vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Magallanes host Everton de Vina at Estadio Municipal in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Magallanes stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Magallanes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Magallanes's home record at Estadio Municipal: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Magallanes 1.40 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Magallanes, 1 for Everton de Vina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Magallanes in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Magallanes 65% and Everton de Vina 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Magallanes 48% | Everton de Vina 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Magallanes 1.01 xG and Everton de Vina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Magallanes attack 0.866 / defence 0.922 | Everton de Vina attack 0.946 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.234. Data: 23 Magallanes games / 54 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Magallanes 33% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 36%. Fair-value odds: Magallanes 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Everton de Vina 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Magallanes 70% | Everton de Vina 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Magallanes vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Magallanes 33% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Magallanes 1.01 / Everton de Vina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Magallanes attack 0.866 / def 0.922 | Everton de Vina attack 0.946 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Magallanes xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Everton de Vina xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Magallanes vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Magallanes vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Estadio Municipal.
What was the final score in Magallanes vs Everton de Vina?
Magallanes 1 - 4 Everton de Vina.
Where is Magallanes vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal.
What competition is Magallanes vs Everton de Vina part of?
Magallanes vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Magallanes vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Magallanes a 33% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Magallanes vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Magallanes and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Magallanes vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Magallanes and Everton de Vina?
Record (1 meetings): Magallanes 0W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Magallanes and Everton de Vina in?
Magallanes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Magallanes's attack rating (0.87) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Magallanes's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.27
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Magallanes xG
Total xG
2.08
1.08
Everton de Vina xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Magallanes vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Magallanes and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Magallanes and 1.08 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Magallanes vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Magallanes's recent record stands at 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Magallanes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 8L across 23 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Everton de Vina by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Magallanes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Magallanes have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Magallanes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Magallanes are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.43 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Magallanes have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Everton de Vina in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Magallanes
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Magallanes and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Magallanes have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Magallanes at home or Everton de Vina away?
Magallanes's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Magallanes at home: 1.36 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Magallanes or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Magallanes have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Magallanes and Everton de Vina runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Magallanes
0
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Magallanes and Everton de Vina?
From 2 meetings on record, Magallanes have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Magallanes and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Magallanes 1-4 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Magallanes and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Magallanes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Magallanes 64%, Everton de Vina 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Magallanes) and 36% (Everton de Vina).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Magallanes home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Magallanes play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Magallanes's games and 54% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Magallanes vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Magallanes's recent games and 36% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Magallanes and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Magallanes have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Magallanes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Magallanes 1-4 at Estadio Municipal, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Magallanes 1.01 xG and Everton de Vina 1.08 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Magallanes attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 23/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Magallanes 33% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 36%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Magallanes 48%, Everton de Vina 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Magallanes's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Magallanes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.