Magallanes 0-2 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Magallanes at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 11 as Magallanes welcome Deportes Copiapo to Estadio Municipal. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Magallanes 1.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Magallanes attack 0.836 / defence 0.973 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.621 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.267. Data: 10 Magallanes games / 10 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Magallanes 49% | Draw 30% | Deportes Copiapo 21%. Fair-value odds: Magallanes 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Deportes Copiapo 4.76. Magallanes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Magallanes at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Magallanes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Magallanes 49% | Draw 30% | Deportes Copiapo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Magallanes 1.32 / Deportes Copiapo 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Magallanes attack 0.836 / def 0.973 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.621 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Magallanes (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Magallanes xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Deportes Copiapo xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Estadio Municipal.
What was the final score in Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo?
Magallanes 0 - 2 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal.
What competition is Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Magallanes a 49% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Magallanes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Magallanes and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Magallanes and Deportes Copiapo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Magallanes and Deportes Copiapo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Magallanes's attack at 0.84x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Magallanes's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Magallanes Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.28
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Magallanes xG
Total xG
2.08
0.77
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Magallanes and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Magallanes and 0.77 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Magallanes vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Magallanes
Pre-Season
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Magallanes
0
Draws
2
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Magallanes and Deportes Copiapo?
From 2 meetings on record, Magallanes have won 0, Deportes Copiapo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Magallanes and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Deportes Copiapo 2-1 Magallanes.
Who has won more matches between Magallanes and Deportes Copiapo?
Deportes Copiapo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Magallanes home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Copiapo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Magallanes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Magallanes 0-2 at Estadio Municipal, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Magallanes 1.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.77 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Magallanes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Deportes Copiapo outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Magallanes attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.62 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Magallanes 49% | Draw 30% | Deportes Copiapo 21%, with Magallanes to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Copiapo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.