Huachipato 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Huachipato at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Huachipato vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio CAP plays host to Huachipato versus Union La Calera in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Huachipato's overall Primera División record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Huachipato's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio CAP this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio CAP. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio CAP this season.
Union La Calera (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union La Calera's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Huachipato's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Huachipato lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 4–2 with Huachipato winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Huachipato half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Union La Calera half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 50% versus Union La Calera 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 47% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.42 xG and Union La Calera 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 1.054 / defence 0.892 | Union La Calera attack 0.991 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.362. Data: 31 Huachipato games / 30 Union La Calera games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Huachipato 42% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 32%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Huachipato at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Huachipato if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 50% | Union La Calera 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 42% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Huachipato 1.42 / Union La Calera 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 1.054 / def 0.892 | Union La Calera attack 0.991 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Union La Calera xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Union La Calera kick off?
Huachipato vs Union La Calera kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Huachipato 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Huachipato vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Union La Calera part of?
Huachipato vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 42% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Huachipato and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Union La Calera?
Record (5 meetings): Huachipato 2W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 3W.
What form are Huachipato and Union La Calera in?
Huachipato (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (1.05) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.99x) against Huachipato's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.84
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.63
1.20
Union La Calera xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.20 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Huachipato come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 11D 22L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (19W 23D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Huachipato against 1.33 for Union La Calera. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Huachipato's home form reads 15W 6D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Huachipato come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Huachipato are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Union La Calera away?
Huachipato's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.70 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Huachipato go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Huachipato have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Huachipato
0
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 4, Union La Calera have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Huachipato 3-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 53%, Union La Calera 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Huachipato) and 50% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Union La Calera in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Huachipato's games and 60% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Huachipato vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Huachipato's recent games and 50% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Huachipato 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Huachipato 0-1 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.42 xG and Union La Calera 1.20 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Union La Calera attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 42% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 32%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 47%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.53 PPG, Union La Calera 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.