Huachipato 2-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Huachipato at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Deportes Copiapo travel to Estadio CAP to take on Huachipato. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Huachipato stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Huachipato's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio CAP this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio CAP. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio CAP this season.
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Copiapo have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deportes Copiapo's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Huachipato have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Huachipato have won 1, Deportes Copiapo 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Huachipato winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Huachipato in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 57% versus Deportes Copiapo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 50% | Deportes Copiapo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.40 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 0.920 / defence 0.892 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.783 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.325. Data: 34 Huachipato games / 34 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 48% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 25%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Deportes Copiapo 4.00. Huachipato hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Huachipato as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Huachipato offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Huachipato 50% | Deportes Copiapo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 48% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Huachipato 1.40 / Deportes Copiapo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 0.920 / def 0.892 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.783 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Deportes Copiapo xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo?
Huachipato 2 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 48% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (2 meetings): Huachipato 1W | Draws 1 | Deportes Copiapo 0W.
What form are Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo in?
Huachipato (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Huachipato's attack at 0.92x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Huachipato's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.68
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.32
0.93
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Huachipato and 0.93 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Huachipato have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 17W 6D 7L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Deportes Copiapo's form line: 8W 10D 12L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Huachipato are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Huachipato have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L).
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Huachipato come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Huachipato are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Current Season
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Huachipato's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.87 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Deportes Copiapo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Deportes Copiapo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Huachipato have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Huachipato's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Huachipato
1
Draws
0
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 0-2 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 47%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Huachipato) and 33% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Deportes Copiapo in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Huachipato's recent matches and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Huachipato's recent games and 33% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Huachipato edge out Deportes Copiapo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Deportes Copiapo 2-1 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.40 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 48% | Draw 27% | Deportes Copiapo 25%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 50%, Deportes Copiapo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Huachipato arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.