Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Huachipato at 49%, yet in-form Coquimbo Unido provide a compelling counter-argument — this Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero plays host to Huachipato versus Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Huachipato have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Huachipato at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Coquimbo Unido arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Huachipato 3W, Coquimbo Unido 3W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Huachipato goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 48% versus Coquimbo Unido 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 53% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.41 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 1.100 / defence 0.922 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.945 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.030. Data: 35 Huachipato games / 35 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 49% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 24%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Coquimbo Unido 4.17. Huachipato hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Huachipato as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Huachipato if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 40% | Coquimbo Unido 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 49% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Huachipato 1.41 / Coquimbo Unido 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 1.100 / def 0.922 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.945 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Coquimbo Unido xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Huachipato 1 - 3 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero.
What competition is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 49% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (8 meetings): Huachipato 3W | Draws 2 | Coquimbo Unido 3W.
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in?
Huachipato (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (1.10) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.94x) against Huachipato's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.68
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.31
0.90
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Huachipato and 0.90 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Huachipato have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 14D 25L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 35W 15D 10L from 60 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Huachipato.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Huachipato have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Huachipato are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 16W 6D 8L from 30 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Huachipato are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.43 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 35W 15D 10L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.77 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Huachipato have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Huachipato
2
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 47%, Coquimbo Unido 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Huachipato) and 43% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 37%; Huachipato have failed to score in 30% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Huachipato's recent matches and 43% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Huachipato's recent games and 43% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Huachipato.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Huachipato 1-3 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.41 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.90 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 49% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 24%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 53%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Huachipato (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.