Everton de Vina 1-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Union La Calera — this Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Everton de Vina welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Sausalito in Primera División (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 20 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Union La Calera have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Union La Calera away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.50 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Union La Calera have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Everton de Vina.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Oct 2024, ended Everton de Vina 0–1 Union La Calera — a Union La Calera win.
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 62% and Union La Calera 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Union La Calera 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.09 xG and Union La Calera 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.873 / defence 0.878 | Union La Calera attack 0.693 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 0.996. Union La Calera's attack rating of 0.693 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 37 games and Union La Calera's last 37.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 35% | Union La Calera 19%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.17 | Draw 2.89 | Union La Calera 5.15. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Union La Calera's lower xG of 0.61 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Everton de Vina's last 10 home games and Union La Calera's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 40% (last 10 home games) | Union La Calera 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, matchday 8 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 35% | Union La Calera 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Everton de Vina 1.09 / Union La Calera 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.873 / def 0.878 | Union La Calera attack 0.693 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.492 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Union La Calera xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera FAQs
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera is a Primera División fixture (matchday 8) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union La Calera will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.87) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton de Vina's last 37 games and Union La Calera's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
46%
2.17
35%
2.89
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.69
0.61
Union La Calera xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.61 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 25W 15D 20L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 19W 18D 23L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.50 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 9W 11D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
Everton de Vina (Home) vs Union La Calera (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera Form FAQs
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union La Calera away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 27 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton de Vina have won 1, Union La Calera have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union La Calera last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2026: Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Union La Calera 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 33% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union La Calera in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton de Vina and Union La Calera matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 53% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 33% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Union La Calera matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 67% of Union La Calera's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Union La Calera share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Union La Calera finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.09 xG and Union La Calera 0.61 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Union La Calera attack 0.69 / defence 0.83, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 35% | Union La Calera 19%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Union La Calera 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Union La Calera 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.