🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 8 as Everton de Vina welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Union La Calera away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.50 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union La Calera have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Everton de Vina.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Union La Calera winning.

It is worth noting that Union La Calera have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 62% and Union La Calera 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Union La Calera 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.09 xG and Union La Calera 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.873 / defence 0.878 | Union La Calera attack 0.693 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 0.996. Data: 37 Everton de Vina games / 37 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 35% | Union La Calera 19%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Union La Calera 5.26. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Union La Calera's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 40% | Union La Calera 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights